Description: Actuaries are increasingly being asked to incorporate Economic Scenario Generators into their work. Whether it be a Risk Neutral model for pricing or a Real-World version for Economic Capital modelling, using these tools can help produce a much more robust analysis. Unfortunately, these models and their underpinnings are also very complicated, which can lead to confusion. The presenters in this session will try to demystify some of this. In particular, they will address the following questions: • What is the difference between Real-World and Risk Neutral scenarios? • When should I use one or the other? • How are these models calibrated? • What are some of the misconceptions about these models?

Description: This paper explores available disability experience data in order to shed some light on the character and extent of the subjective influences which affect the frequency and duration of disability. A mathematical model for computing disability income premiums and reserves is also presented.

Description: Variable annuity (VA) writers are facing many challenges in today's economic environment. Equity market volatility and low interest rates make guaranteed benefits increasingly expensive to hedge. Both GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements and the recent VM-21 changes will drive the need to manage the VA business under a new set of lenses. During this session, the presenters will explore the various in-force management tools VA writers have available and comment on their effectiveness.

Description: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) is in the middle of of a project to change the real-world economic scenario generator (RW ESG) prescribed for principle-based reserve and capital calculations. The presenters will provide a brief summary of the NAIC's RW ESG project and provide a general overview of RW ESGs. In addition to that, they will explain how RW ESGs impact principle-based reserve and capital levels and consider potential differences between the currently prescribed RW ESG and the proposed RW ESG.

Description: This article details the medical stop-loss coverages purchased by HMOs, small insurers and providers taking delegated financial risk in payor agreements. Along the way we will identify strategies purchasers often use to save money on medical stop-loss.

Description: The economic crisis and the opportunities it presents.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: Research project that reviewed and inventoried the range of quality and efficiency measures currently available.

Description: The actuarial profession and our stakeholders in the insurance industry are in a unique position to help quantify and mitigate environmental risks via pricing and benefit incentives. Property insurance prices and benefits can encourage responsible and sustainable development. By developing insurance markets and making various types of insurance available in developing regions, which are disproportionately affected by environmental risks and hazards, we can provide protection that is critical for economic development. In spite of the risks posed by environmental issues to actuaries and our stakeholders, and in spite of the opportunities for actuaries and our stakeholders to address environmental risks, actuarial literature is limited with respect to such topics as: environmental risks, including natural disasters, pollution, clean air and water, degradation of the natural and human environment, resource depletion and sustainability, climate change and its consequences; local, national, regional and global efforts to address environmental risks; methods and models used by the scientific community to study environmental risks; methods and assumptions used to quantify the economic or financial risk associated with environmental hazards. This webcast will feature three of the papers addressing these topics that have been published so far in this series of twelve papers. The authors of the papers will present their topics and attendees will be able to participate with questions and answers.

Description: This study, part of the Society of Actuaries [SOA} ‘Research Projects – Finance/Investment,’ is sponsored by the SOA Futurism Section, Investment Section, Committee on Finance Research and Committee on Knowledge Extension Research. This study investigates the merits of conducting a study on economic variables utilizing the Delphi method, a futures research technique. The report consists of eight documents, the report and seven Appendices [A through G].